The concept of multiple scaling regimes in temperature time series is examined, with emphasis on the question whether or not a mono-scaling model can be rejected from the data at hand. A model with only one regime is simpler and is preferred if this 5 explains the observed variability. Our analysis of spectra from reconstructed air temperature from Greenland and Antarctica ice cores shows that ...

Multiple, linear regression is employed to attribute variability in the global surface temperature to various forcing components and prominent internal climatic modes. The purpose of the study is to asses how sensitive attribution is to long-range memory 5 (LRM) in the model for the temperature response. The model response to a given forcing component is its fingerprint, and is different for a ...

Lovejoy and Varotsos (2016) (L&V) analyse the temperature response to solar, volcanic, and solar plus volcanic forcing in the Zebiak–Cane (ZC) model, and to solar and solar plus volcanic forcing in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) E2-R model. By using a simple wavelet filtering technique they conclude that the responses in the ZC model combine subadditively on timescales from 50 to ...

FNs klimapanel har utarbeidet en rekke prognoser for økningen i global middeltemperatur basert på ulike scenarier for ­ut­vik­lingen av utslipp av drivhusgasser og partikler fra menneskelig aktivitet. Disse prognosene er i hovedsak basert på en lang rekke svært komplekse modeller. De mest komplekse, såkalte jordsystemmodeller, omfatter sirkulasjonen i atmosfære og hav, men også isdynamikk, og kjemiske ...

Earth’s global surface temperature shows variability on an extended range of temporal scales and satisfies an emergent scaling symmetry. Recent studies indicate that scale invariance is not only a feature of the observed temperature fluctuations, but an inherent property of the temperature response to radiative forcing, and a principle that links the fast and slow climate responses. It provides a ...

Effektkjøring av magasinkraftverk er hurtige og store variasjoner i vannføring og produsert effekt. Spesielt kan store variasjoner innenfor et tidsrom på et døgn føre til tilsvarende variasjoner i vannstand i nedstrøm vassdrag og som kan føre til skader på livet i elva. Det er en gjengs oppfatning at et stort innslag av intermitterende, ikke-regulerbare kraftkilder som vindkraft, vil føre til hardere ...

A remaining carbon budget (RCB) estimates how much CO2 we can emit and still reach a specific temperature target. The RCB concept is attractive since it easily communicates to the public and policymakers, but RCBs are also subject to uncertainties. The expected warming levels for a given carbon budget has a wide uncertainty range, which increases with less ambitious targets, i.e., with higher CO2 ...

We analyze probe data obtained from a toroidal magnetized plasma configuration suitable for studies of low-frequency gradient-driven instabilities. These instabilities give rise to field-aligned convection rolls analogous to Rayleigh-Benard cells in neutral fluids, and may theoretically develop similar routes to chaos. When using mean-field dimension analysis, we observe low dimensionality, but ...

A simple conceptual model for the global mean surface temperature (GMST) response to CO2 emissions is presented and analysed. It consists of linear long-memory models for the GMST anomaly response ∆T to radiative forcing and atmospheric CO2 - 5 concentration response ∆C to emission rate. The responses are connected by the standard logarithmic relation between CO2 concentration and its radiative ...

Statistiske metoder som regresjonsanalyse og kausale design basert på naturlige eksperi-menter har etter hvert blitt hyllevare innen de fleste fag som behandler store datamengder,ikke minst innen epidemiologi, meteorologi og klimavitenskap.1 Et eksempel er prinsipalkomponentanalyse (PCA), som brukes til å finne karakteristiske mønstre i geofysiske felt.Mønstrene, eller prinsipalkomponentene, ...